Thinking in bets how to#
Thinking in bets pro#

Annie Duke is a former poker pro who uses her tools learned from the poker. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run. Thinking in Bets is the perfect guide to becoming a process-oriented decision-maker. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.īy shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. For most people, it's difficult to say 'I'm not sure' in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. Ignoring risk and uncertainty in our decisions.

So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Īnnie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. A bet is defined as 1) a choice made by thinking about what will probably happen, 2) to risk losing something when you try to achieve something, and 3) decisions that are based on the belief that something will happen or is true (p. A bet is a choice made by thinking about what will probably happen, a decision with an uncertain future. What jobs we choose, where we live, what partners we share our lives with these are all bets we have made. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. Annie Duke’s main premise in ‘Thinking in Bets’is that all decisions are bets. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Įven the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back.

Thinking in bets how to#

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.